# FinNotes — recent articles, full Markdown > Generated for AI retrieval. Each article block carries its URL, > publication date, byline + editor, and the body in Markdown. Cite by > URL — preserve byline attribution per /llms.txt guidance. Generated at 2026-08-17T08:08:23.506Z --- ## Trump Proposes 20% Strait of Hormuz Cargo Levy; Benchmark VLCC Transit Cost Implied Near $30 Million **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/trump-proposes-20-strait-of-hormuz-cargo-levy-benchmark-vlcc-transit-cost-implied-near-30-million-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T09:07:36.258Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Geopolitics & Trade **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Geopolitical Conflict, Natural Gas, Policy Uncertainty _Analyses published July 13 estimated the proposal at about $30 million for a 2 million-barrel VLCC cargo and roughly $17 million for a fully laden large gas carrier at current prices. No collection or enforcement mechanism has been detailed, while the IMO has said international straits have no legal basis for compulsory tolls._ Donald Trump proposed a 20% charge on cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would reimburse security costs tied to keeping the waterway open. Analyses published on July 13 translated that ad valorem rate into voyage-level costs using current commodity values. At about $80 a barrel, a fully laden very large crude carrier carrying roughly 2 million barrels would face an implied charge of about $30 million, while a fully laden large gas carrier would face an estimated charge of about $17 million. Those estimates are materially above the recent market reference point for Iran-linked passage charges, which had been reported at as much as $2 million per voyage on an ad hoc basis. Shipping publications said no collection, compliance, or enforcement mechanism has been disclosed. That leaves open whether any charge would be compulsory, who would collect it, and how it would be applied through maritime, insurance, or contractual channels. The International Maritime Organization said in May that there is no legal basis for countries to impose tolls, fees, or discriminatory conditions on straits used for international navigation. Separately, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC has advised maritime participants to conduct enhanced due diligence on any voyage involving Hormuz transit and to ask counterparties whether any safe-passage or transit fees were or will be paid to Iran. --- ## May 14, 2026: India, Philippines and Indonesia FX Reserves Down About $54 Billion Since Late February **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/may-14-2026-india-philippines-and-indonesia-fx-reserves-down-about-54-billion-since-late-february-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T09:03:21.891Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Fiscal & Monetary Policy _Data cited by Bloomberg and official central-bank releases show foreign-exchange reserves in India, the Philippines and Indonesia fell by roughly $54 billion between late February and mid-May 2026. The declines reflected currency-support operations, external debt payments and valuation changes in non-dollar reserve assets._ Foreign-exchange reserves in India, the Philippines and Indonesia fell by about $54 billion between late February and mid-May 2026, according to Bloomberg-reported figures and official central-bank data. India’s reserves declined by roughly $37.5 billion from $728.494 billion in the week ended Feb. 27 to about $691 billion by mid-May. The Philippines’ gross international reserves fell by $9.28 billion to $103.99 billion at end-May from $113.26 billion at end-February, while Indonesia’s official reserve assets decreased by $7.0 billion to $144.9 billion from $151.9 billion over the same period. Bloomberg cited the largest percentage declines among the countries highlighted in the report as 8.1% for the Philippines, 5.2% for India and 3.8% for Indonesia. The reported changes reflected foreign-exchange operations to manage currency volatility, external debt repayments and valuation effects on non-dollar reserve assets. Bank Indonesia said its reserves covered 5.6 months of imports at end-May, down from 6.1 months at end-February and still above the international benchmark of around three months. --- ## India Tells Banks to Accelerate NRI FX Deposit Mobilisation Under RBI Swap Windows Amid Rupee Pressure **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/india-tells-banks-to-accelerate-nri-fx-deposit-mobilisation-under-rbi-swap-windows-amid-rupee-pressure-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T09:00:03.580Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Financial Regulation _Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 13 reviewed progress on FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB swap schemes and directed banks to step up outreach in key overseas markets, use GIFT City banking units and follow RBI’s daily reporting framework. FCNR(B) deposits are eligible through Sept. 30, 2026, and ECB and OFCB windows through Dec. 31, 2026._ India’s finance ministry said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met managing directors and chief executives of public sector banks and public financial institutions in New Delhi on July 13 to review progress on Reserve Bank of India swap-facility schemes covering foreign currency non-resident bank, or FCNR(B), deposits, as well as external commercial borrowing and overseas foreign currency borrowing initiatives. She asked banks to increase mobilisation during the remaining eligibility windows. According to the ministry, banks reported interest from non-resident Indians in Singapore, Hong Kong, West Asia, the UK, the US and other jurisdictions. Banks were asked to intensify targeted outreach, including through digital channels, and to make greater use of International Financial Services Centre and GIFT City international banking units. The ministry said FCNR(B) mobilisation was showing an accelerating trend and cited encouraging response across FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB channels. RBI’s FCNR(B) swap facility, announced on June 8, applies to fresh deposits with tenors of three to five years raised in freely convertible currencies, with the swap available only in US dollars and aligned to the underlying deposit tenor. A separate daily reporting system introduced on June 19 requires banks to submit data on FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB mobilisation each day. Fresh FCNR(B) deposits are eligible under the scheme through Sept. 30, 2026, with the swap window open until Oct. 16 for eligible deposits mobilised by that date, while ECB and OFCB windows run through Dec. 31, 2026. The RBI has also provided pricing flexibility on fresh FCNR(B) deposits under the scheme, and deposits mobilised through Sept. 30 are exempt from cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio requirements. The policy push follows a period of rupee weakness, with the World Bank reporting that the currency depreciated by an average 5% year on year over April 2025 to March 2026 and fell to 94.7 per US dollar at end-March. --- ## BP Guides 2Q Net Debt to $22 Billion-$23 Billion, Flags Higher Oil Trading and Lower Output **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/bp-guides-2q-net-debt-to-22-billion-23-billion-flags-higher-oil-trading-and-lower-output-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:55:27.520Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Companies & Earnings **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Natural Gas _BP said second-quarter net debt should decline to $22 billion-$23 billion from $25.31 billion at the end of the first quarter, while oil trading is expected to be slightly stronger and gas trading broadly unchanged. Upstream production is seen at 2.17 million-2.22 million boe/d, down from 2.34 million in 1Q._ BP said in its second-quarter trading statement that net debt at the end of 2Q26 is expected to be $22 billion to $23 billion, down from $25.31 billion at the end of 1Q26, after a $2.9 billion redemption of €2.5 billion of perpetual hybrid bonds on June 22 and $1.1 billion of Gulf of America settlement payments. The company said the combined total of net debt, hybrids and Gulf of America settlement liabilities is expected to decrease by about $6.3 billion to $7.3 billion from the first quarter, with remaining hybrid bonds expected at about $13 billion versus $16.0 billion at the end of 1Q26. BP reiterated its target to reduce net debt to $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027. BP said its oil trading result in 2Q26 is expected to be slightly higher than in 1Q26, reflecting higher prices and volatility during the Iran conflict, while gas trading is expected to be broadly flat. Upstream production is expected at 2.17 million to 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 2.339 million in 1Q26, with lower output linked to seasonal maintenance, mainly in the Gulf of America, and disruption in the Middle East. BP also said products are expected to benefit from stronger realized refining margins, while refinery throughput is expected at 1.445 million to 1.475 million barrels per day versus 1.527 million in the first quarter because of turnaround activity and lower Whiting volumes after an April third-party event. The company said exploration write-offs are expected at about $500 million, mainly related to the sale of Bay du Nord, and post-tax adjusting items related to impairments are expected at about $1.0 billion, primarily in transition businesses within gas and low carbon energy. Second-quarter results are scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026. --- ## EU imports from Russia's Yamal LNG hit record 9.97 million tons in January-June 2026 **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/eu-imports-from-russia-s-yamal-lng-hit-record-9-97-million-tons-in-january-june-2026-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:52:19.985Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** Economic Policy, Geopolitical Conflict, NATURAL_GAS_EU, Natural Gas _Kpler data showed EU countries received 136 cargoes from the Yamal LNG export facility in January-June 2026, totaling 9.97 million metric tons, about 16% more than a year earlier. France, Belgium and Spain were the main destinations as the EU implemented staged limits on Russian gas, including restrictions on short-term LNG imports and transshipment._ EU countries imported 136 cargoes from the Yamal LNG export facility in January-June 2026, totaling 9.97 million metric tons, up about 16% from a year earlier and the highest first-half volume on record, according to Kpler cargo-tracking data cited by Reuters. France, Belgium and Spain were the main delivery destinations. The increase came as the European Union implemented a staged phaseout of Russian gas under Regulation (EU) 2026/261, which introduced restrictions linked to contract type and tighter controls on LNG transshipment and reporting. ACER said Russian pipeline gas imports into the EU rose 7% year on year and Russian LNG imports rose 11% year on year in January-May 2026. It also noted that gas received at an EU entry point is not necessarily consumed in that country because volumes can move across the bloc’s integrated market. Yamal LNG is controlled by Novatek, with minority stakes held by CNPC and TotalEnergies. --- ## China orders domestic raters to revisit AAA bond grades under new spread-based review **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/china-orders-domestic-raters-to-revisit-aaa-bond-grades-under-new-spread-based-review-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:50:03.813Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Finance & Banking **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Financial Regulation _PBOC-led regulators told domestic agencies to reassess highly rated issuers using updated standards that include issuance spreads over comparable government bonds, with spreads above 200 basis points as a downgrade trigger. By June 26, 28 downgrades had been recorded in 2026 versus nine in 2025, while more than 220 issuers stopped seeking ratings._ China’s regulators, led by the People’s Bank of China, have instructed domestic credit rating agencies to re-examine issuers with top bond ratings under updated standards. The changes include a market-based test tied to the spread between a bond’s yield at issuance and the yield on comparable government bonds. Reports said issuers whose issuance spreads exceed 200 basis points face possible removal of AAA status, although rating firms can consider other factors before making a final decision. The review comes as authorities seek greater differentiation in the domestic ratings market, where ratings remain concentrated at the upper end. Among more than 6,000 bond issuers at the end of the first quarter, 27% were rated AAA and 32% AA+, and more than 90% of domestic bond ratings were AA or above. Regulators met rating agencies in late April to require higher rating quality, and rating actions have increased since then. As of June 26, 28 downgrades had been recorded in 2026, compared with 9 in all of 2025, while more than 220 issuers had stopped requesting ratings this year. Lianhe Credit Rating withdrew ratings for several AAA issuers, and China Chengxin International Credit Rating introduced a suspension mechanism for cases where required client information cannot be obtained. Regulators have also required agencies to report issuer-requested rating terminations within three working days and explain the reasons, including details on the issuer’s operations, financial condition and credit outlook. --- ## Intel Launches €5 Billion Leixlip Expansion, Says AI and Server Demand Is Raising Intel 3 Needs **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/intel-launches-5-billion-leixlip-expansion-says-ai-and-server-demand-is-raising-intel-3-needs-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:47:21.559Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Technology **Keywords:** Business Investment, Growth Outlook, Labor Market _Intel said on July 13 it has begun a €5 billion investment at its Leixlip campus to upgrade existing fabrication facilities, add manufacturing equipment and site infrastructure, and expand European Intel 3 wafer output for Xeon 6 and next-generation Xeon products. The company expects most of the spending by end-2027 and said the project will add several hundred jobs._ Intel said on July 13 it has started a €5 billion capital investment at its Leixlip campus in Ireland to expand manufacturing capacity in Europe. The project includes upgrading existing fabrication facilities, installing additional leading-edge equipment, and enhancing site infrastructure. The company said the investment is intended to increase output of Intel 3 wafers used for Intel Xeon 6 and next-generation Xeon products, as server and AI demand raises requirements for Intel 3 production. Intel said the work will use existing cleanroom space rather than a new greenfield site. The project will also include expansion of an automated track system to connect campus modules and improve production flow. Reuters reported Intel expects most of the spending to be made by the end of 2027. Intel said the investment will support additional research and development activity and staff retraining, and is expected to create several hundred jobs at the site, which currently employs about 4,900 people. The company has said it has invested more than €30 billion in Ireland since 1989. --- ## Volkswagen CEO says 20% cost gap implies about 50,000 further job cuts beyond existing reductions **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/volkswagen-ceo-says-20-cost-gap-implies-about-50-000-further-job-cuts-beyond-existing-reductions-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:43:41.660Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Companies & Earnings **Keywords:** DAX, Growth Outlook, Labor Market _Volkswagen has already agreed about 50,000 job reductions across the group, including Audi and Porsche. In a July 13 staff memo, CEO Oliver Blume said a remaining cost disadvantage of about 20% versus peers mathematically points to roughly 50,000 more cuts, while final measures are still being assessed by brand, company, and region._ Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume told staff in a July 13 memo that the group’s remaining cost disadvantage of about 20% versus comparable companies translates mathematically into roughly 50,000 additional job cuts on top of about 50,000 reductions already agreed across Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche. He said the figure was a theoretical benchmark rather than a finalized operational plan, and that management is assessing what measures are necessary and feasible by brand, company and region. The memo cited lower profit, tariff-related costs, competition in China and efficiency pressure in the German manufacturing network. It said management was examining restructuring options with a preference for measures other than immediate plant closures. Reuters has reported that Volkswagen’s broader restructuring discussions have included reducing model and variant complexity, lowering annual production capacity to about 9 million vehicles from about 10 million, reviewing possible action at German sites including Hanover, Emden, Zwickau and Audi’s Neckarsulm plant, and seeking alternative uses for underused assets. Volkswagen’s existing programs already include more than 35,000 workforce reductions at German Volkswagen brand sites by 2030 through attrition, early retirement, severance and lower hiring, while unions and the works council have said they oppose plant closures. --- ## Aditya Birla Renewables to Acquire Shell's Sprng Energy in $1.8 Billion India Deal **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/aditya-birla-renewables-to-acquire-shell-s-sprng-energy-in-1-8-billion-india-deal-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:39:21.308Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Deals & Capital Markets **Keywords:** Business Investment _Shell said its wholly owned unit agreed to sell Solenergi Power, which includes Sprng Energy, to Aditya Birla Renewables for $1.8 billion. The business has about 5 GWp of contracted capacity, with roughly 3.3 GWp operating and 1.7 GWp under construction. Closing is targeted by end-2026, subject to approvals._ Shell plc said Shell Overseas Investment B.V. has signed an agreement to sell 100% of Solenergi Power Private Limited, the holding company of Sprng Energy, to Aditya Birla Renewables Limited for $1.8 billion. Completion is expected by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions. Aditya Birla Group said the transaction values the business at an enterprise value of INR 17,200 crore, with the final equity consideration to be determined after adjustments for debt, cash and other items set out in the transaction documents. The assets include about 5 GWp of contracted renewable capacity in India, comprising roughly 3.3 GWp in operation and 1.7 GWp under construction, as well as a connectivity and development pipeline. Aditya Birla said the acquisition would increase its renewable portfolio to about 9.3 GW. Aditya Birla said the purchase will be funded through a mix of debt, an equity infusion from Grasim, and capital from funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners, part of BlackRock. Shell said the sale is part of portfolio adjustments in its power business and that Sprng employees are expected to continue with the business under the new owner. Shell acquired Solenergi Power in 2022 at an enterprise value of about $1.55 billion. --- ## Report says DP World is weighing Fujairah port options to route UAE cargo outside Hormuz **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/report-says-dp-world-is-weighing-fujairah-port-options-to-route-uae-cargo-outside-hormuz-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:36:30.857Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Companies & Earnings **Keywords:** Business Investment, Geopolitical Conflict _Financial Times reporting, cited by Reuters on July 13, said DP World is considering either a new multipurpose port on Fujairah’s Gulf of Oman coast or a container terminal at the existing Fujairah port. The reported concept would allow UAE cargo movements without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while project structure and financing remain undecided._ DP World is considering options to establish a container gateway on the UAE’s east coast that would allow cargo to move without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the *Financial Times* reported on July 13, citing sources, in a report carried by Reuters. The options under review are a new multipurpose port on the Fujairah coast on the Gulf of Oman or a new container terminal at the existing Fujairah port. The report said the project structure and financing have not been finalized. According to the *Financial Times*, the review follows disruption to shipping through the strait, with sources describing a 90% to 95% drop in activity at Jebel Ali after the closure. Fujairah already serves as an outside-Hormuz export location for UAE energy flows through existing pipeline infrastructure, and other UAE logistics operators have used Fujairah and nearby east-coast ports to reroute cargo during the disruption. DP World said in its 2025 annual report that it operated 109.5 million TEU of gross terminal capacity with utilization of 85.3% across its network. --- ## Nvidia Cuts Approved Asian AI-Chip Buyers by More Than Half in New Compliance Review **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/nvidia-cuts-approved-asian-ai-chip-buyers-by-more-than-half-in-new-compliance-review-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:31:34.586Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Technology **Keywords:** Financial Regulation, Nasdaq 100 _Reuters reported Nvidia created a whitelist for Asian buyers of AI chips and intensified compliance reviews in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, removing more than half of previously authorized customers after an initial screening. The process includes site visits, contract checks and end-user verification, with firms able to reapply._ Nvidia has reduced by more than half the number of customers in Asia authorized to buy its AI chips after introducing a whitelist of companies that passed tighter compliance checks, according to a Reuters report citing the Financial Times. The review was carried out over recent months in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, and more than half of previously approved customers, including companies described in the report as neo-cloud providers, were removed after the first screening. The report said those companies may reapply after making changes. Nvidia’s checks were described as including data-center site visits, contract reviews and verification of end users, extending beyond standard customer screening. The reported changes were disclosed against a broader U.S. export-control framework for advanced computing items, including Commerce Department guidance issued in May stating that a license is required for shipments to entities headquartered in China and other Country Group D:5 locations, or with ultimate parents there, even when the recipient is located outside those jurisdictions. --- ## July 14: U.S. says it struck Iranian coastal sites after UAE reports cruise-missile attack on two tankers in Hormuz **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/july-14-u-s-says-it-struck-iranian-coastal-sites-after-uae-reports-cruise-missile-attack-on-two-tankers-in-hormuz-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:26:32.414Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Geopolitics & Trade **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Geopolitical Conflict, WTI_OIL _CENTCOM said its July 13 mission targeted Iranian air defense, radar, missile, drone and small-boat assets across several coastal locations and issued notice that a naval blockade regime resumes July 14. Regional media citing the UAE Ministry of Defence said two tankers in Omani waters were hit by two Iranian cruise missiles, with one fatality and multiple injuries._ U.S. Central Command said on July 13 that U.S. forces carried out a five-hour mission against Iranian coastal locations after attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The targets included air defense systems, coastal radar and surveillance assets, command-and-control networks, anti-ship missile capabilities, drone sites and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats at Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa and Bandar Abbas. Regional media citing the UAE Ministry of Defence reported on July 14 that two tankers, Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, were hit by two Iranian cruise missiles in the southern shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz within Omani territorial waters. One person was killed and multiple others were injured. CENTCOM also said a naval blockade regime on maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas would resume on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET, while traffic not violating the blockade would continue to be supported. It instructed mariners to monitor official notices and contact U.S. naval forces on VHF bridge-to-bridge channel 16 in the Gulf of Oman and Hormuz approaches. In a separate warning on July 7, UKMTO said a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz had been struck by an unidentified projectile, causing structural damage, with no reported casualties or environmental impact. --- ## Oil reaches four-week high with Brent above $85 amid renewed U.S.-Iran action in the Strait of Hormuz **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/oil-reaches-four-week-high-with-brent-above-85-amid-renewed-u-s-iran-action-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:24:17.296Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Geopolitical Conflict, WTI_OIL _Brent traded around $85.20 a barrel and WTI near $80.05 in early Singapore hours on July 14, with Brent at its highest level in four weeks. Brent had risen 9.6% in the previous session. Ship counts through Hormuz fell to 11 on July 12 from 32 on July 10, and tanker attacks were reported._ Oil prices rose nearly 3% in early Singapore trading on July 14, with Brent crude around $85.20 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate near $80.05. That left Brent at its highest level in four weeks after a 9.6% gain in the previous session. Reuters reported that the United States had reimposed naval restrictions on Iran and that U.S. and Iranian forces had stepped up military action in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker attacks and lower vessel movements added to uncertainty over energy flows. Ship traffic through the strait fell to 11 vessels on July 12 from 32 on July 10, according to S&P Global data cited in the report, and no ships were observed entering the Persian Gulf that day. The strait is a key route for crude, oil products and liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf producers. According to energy agency data cited in the report, roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade typically move through the passage. The latest price levels were the highest since a June 17 memorandum of understanding intended to end hostilities, while market focus remained on whether reduced tanker movements and partial transit restrictions would persist. --- ## S&P Keeps Indonesia at BBB/Stable as BI Expects Support for Government Bonds **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/s-and-p-keeps-indonesia-at-bbb-stable-as-bi-expects-support-for-government-bonds-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:21:16.243Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Economic Policy, Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Growth Outlook _S&P affirmed Indonesia at BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook on July 13, saying weaker fiscal and external metrics should be temporary as revenue and export receipts recover and the 3% deficit ceiling remains a policy anchor. Bank Indonesia said the decision could support confidence after recent market and rupiah volatility._ S&P Global Ratings on July 13 affirmed Indonesia’s long-term sovereign rating at **BBB** and its short-term rating at **A-2**, with a stable outlook, saying weaker fiscal and external metrics should be temporary. The agency said the deterioration reflected high energy prices, higher interest rates, rupiah weakness, policy uncertainty and accumulated debt. It said the stable outlook was based on expectations of recovering government revenue this year, stronger export receipts alongside higher commodity prices, policy measures to raise resource-sector revenue and export earnings, and the government’s continued use of the 3% annual fiscal deficit ceiling as a policy anchor. S&P said factors that could pressure the rating include a sustained rise in net general government debt by more than 3% of GDP per year, interest payments remaining above 15% of revenue, or structurally weaker exports that keep gross external financing needs above current-account receipts and usable reserves. Bank Indonesia said the affirmation reflected confidence in Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability and could help support confidence in the government bond market after recent volatility in the currency and financial markets. The central bank said it would continue its monetary, macroprudential and payments policy mix and coordination with the government and financial stability authorities. Earlier in 2026, Moody’s and Fitch had affirmed Indonesia’s ratings while revising their outlooks to negative. --- ## June 11: OPEC cuts 2026 world oil demand growth estimate to 970,000 bpd **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/june-11-opec-cuts-2026-world-oil-demand-growth-estimate-to-970-000-bpd-2026-07-14 **Published:** 2026-07-14T08:17:25.800Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Growth Outlook, WTI_OIL _On June 11, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million, implying total demand of 106.13 million bpd. It left economic growth assumptions unchanged, raised its 2027 demand growth outlook to 1.73 million bpd, and reported May OPEC+ output at 33.13 million bpd._ OPEC said in its June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report that it lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million barrels per day in May, marking a second consecutive downward revision. The new outlook implies total world oil demand of 106.13 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC’s forecast breakdown points to about 100,000 barrels per day of demand growth in OECD economies and about 900,000 barrels per day in non-OECD markets. The group left its economic growth assumptions unchanged and said global economic performance in the first half of 2026 remained stable. OPEC also raised its 2027 oil demand growth forecast by 190,000 barrels per day to 1.73 million barrels per day, implying demand of nearly 108 million barrels per day next year. On supply, OPEC reported average May crude output for OPEC+ at 33.13 million barrels per day, down about 190,000 barrels per day from April. --- ## Japan 10-Year JGB Yield Hits 2.83%, Highest Since 1996, Amid Fiscal Policy Concerns **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/japan-10-year-jgb-yield-hits-2-83-highest-since-1996-amid-fiscal-policy-concerns-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T09:08:08.607Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Policy Uncertainty _Market attention centered on a draft government blueprint that called for monetary policy to align with growth strategy and omitted language on improving fiscal health. Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said policy decisions remain the Bank of Japan’s responsibility and said the government is not abandoning fiscal discipline._ Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.83% on Monday, its highest level since 1996, as investors assessed the government’s fiscal policy framework and the Bank of Japan’s policy stance. Market attention focused on a draft economic blueprint released last month that called for monetary policy to align with the government’s growth strategy and did not include earlier language on improving fiscal health. Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said that interpretation was a misunderstanding, that monetary policy decisions are the responsibility of the Bank of Japan, and that the government was not abandoning fiscal discipline. The draft framework would treat the primary budget balance as a multi-year managed indicator instead of an annual target and would shift the main fiscal target to the debt-to-GDP ratio. The move in the benchmark yield followed a broader rise in longer-dated Japanese government bond yields in recent months amid weak demand at some super-long bond auctions and close scrutiny of issuance plans. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said in its FY2026 debt management policy that monthly issuance of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds would be reduced by 100 billion yen each, while medium- to long-term issuance would be maintained. A June supplementary budget kept calendar-base market issuance at 168.5 trillion yen while changing issuance timing through fiscal-year adjustments. The Bank of Japan has said it is reducing bond purchases in a predictable manner while keeping enough flexibility to support stability in the government bond market. --- ## S&P DJI puts Indonesia on 2027 watchlist, cites possible move from emerging to special measures or frontier **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/s-and-p-dji-puts-indonesia-on-2027-watchlist-cites-possible-move-from-emerging-to-special-measures-or-frontier-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T09:04:26.971Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Markets **Keywords:** Economic Policy, Financial Regulation, Policy Uncertainty _In a July 7 country-classification update, S&P Dow Jones Indices kept Indonesia classified as emerging while placing it on its 2027 watchlist for regulatory developments linked to stock-ownership transparency. It said worsening conditions could prompt special treatment for Indonesian securities, with classification assessed in a later annual review if issues remain unresolved._ S&P Dow Jones Indices said on July 7 that Indonesia remains classified as an emerging market but has been added to its 2026/2027 country-classification watchlist. The country is being monitored for a possible reclassification to Special Measures or Frontier. S&P DJI said the monitoring is focused on regulatory developments related to stock-ownership transparency. It cited guidance issued by the Indonesia Stock Exchange that is intended to address disclosure-related issues and possible liquidity effects, and said it continues to track those developments. The index provider said that if conditions deteriorate, it may apply special treatment to Indonesian securities. Under its methodology, if the relevant issues remain unresolved one calendar year after special measures are introduced, Indonesia’s classification would be assessed at the next annual review. It also said watchlist inclusion is a forward-looking monitoring step and is not required before any future reclassification consultation. S&P DJI said country classification decisions combine quantitative and qualitative criteria with investor feedback, and that changes for developed, emerging or frontier status are typically implemented in September of the following year with at least nine months’ notice. Indonesia represented 1.68% of the S&P DJI Emerging Markets Index as of May 15, 2026. The action follows earlier accessibility concerns raised by MSCI about Indonesia’s shareholding transparency and market structure. --- ## KOSPI closes 20% below late-June peak after Samsung and SK Hynix lead chip selloff **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/kospi-closes-20-below-late-june-peak-after-samsung-and-sk-hynix-lead-chip-selloff-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T09:01:06.474Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Markets **Keywords:** Financial Regulation _South Korea’s benchmark ended July 8 at 7,246.79, down 5.35%, after rebounding briefly and then falling enough to trigger a sidecar curb on program trading. Samsung Electronics fell 6.3% and SK Hynix 5.7% as chip shares tracked an overnight 4.7% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index._ South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 7,246.79 on July 8, down 409.52 points, or 5.35%, leaving the benchmark more than 20% below its late-June record close. The index opened lower, rebounded to as much as 1.8% higher, then fell by as much as 6.1% before a sidecar curb temporarily halted program trading. Samsung Electronics fell 6.3% and SK Hynix lost 5.7%, extending pressure on index heavyweights after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.7% overnight. The July 8 move followed a 4.9% KOSPI decline on July 7, when the exchange triggered a 20-minute market-wide circuit breaker after the index fell as much as 8.2% intraday. Samsung had disclosed preliminary second-quarter estimates on July 7 of KRW 171 trillion in sales and KRW 89.4 trillion in operating profit. Reuters reported that foreign investors were net buyers of 335.9 billion won on July 8 after 13 straight sessions of selling, while the won strengthened about 1.2% to 1,498.5 per dollar, its strongest level since May 29. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said authorities would monitor volatility risk factors and referred to recently introduced single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to major chipmakers. --- ## U.S. launches strikes on Iran, revokes oil-sales license after Hormuz vessel attacks **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/u-s-launches-strikes-on-iran-revokes-oil-sales-license-after-hormuz-vessel-attacks-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T08:58:16.288Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Financial Regulation, Geopolitical Conflict, WTI_OIL _Reuters reported attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and said U.S. Central Command described subsequent U.S. strikes on Iran as responsive to the shipping incidents. Brent settled at $74.16 a barrel and WTI at $70.44, while OFAC limited previously authorized Iran oil trade to wind-down activity through July 17._ The United States launched strikes on Iran after attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which U.S. Central Command described as responsive to the shipping incidents. At the same time, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control revoked General License X for Iranian oil sales effective July 7 and replaced it with General License X1. The new license allows only wind-down activity related to transactions previously authorized under the June 21 license through 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 17, 2026. It does not permit new purchases or loading of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products after July 7 except where ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind-down, and any payment to a blocked person must be made into a blocked, interest-bearing account in the United States. Brent crude futures settled up $2.17, or 3.01%, at $74.16 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled up $1.89, or 2.76%, at $70.44. In post-settlement trading, Brent was around $75.88 and WTI around $72.20, more than 5% above the prior day’s settlement, while Reuters also reported U.S. crude futures up 2.7% to $72.40 in the following session; U.S. 10-year Treasury futures were down seven ticks and the dollar strengthened. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 399,000-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories for the week, with official Energy Information Administration data due the next day. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global daily oil and LNG supply, and the U.S. Maritime Administration advised U.S.-flagged commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman to conduct pre-voyage risk assessments, apply protective measures, monitor VHF Channel 16, and follow specified incident-reporting procedures. --- ## HSBC declines to renew some private credit facilities, shifts capital toward lower-risk funds **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/hsbc-declines-to-renew-some-private-credit-facilities-shifts-capital-toward-lower-risk-funds-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T08:55:29.647Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Finance & Banking **Keywords:** Business Investment, Financial Regulation _Reports on July 7 said HSBC has informed some private credit clients it will not extend certain lending lines and will stop providing subordinated leverage financing. The bank said some relationships no longer offered returns commensurate with risk and that it will focus on lower-risk funds._ HSBC has told some private credit clients that it will not renew certain lending facilities and will stop providing subordinated leverage financing, according to reports on July 7. The bank concluded that some private credit fund relationships did not provide sufficient return for the risk involved and is shifting capital toward lower-risk private credit funds. HSBC said it continues to serve the private credit market with central oversight and is prioritizing support for key clients in markets where activity fits its strategy. Reports said the decision followed a series of corporate bankruptcies that increased scrutiny of underwriting standards in parts of the private credit sector. In its first-quarter 2026 investor presentation, HSBC disclosed total private markets exposure of $111 billion, including $22 billion of private-credit-related exposure, with $16 billion drawn and $6 billion committed. On May 5, HSBC also disclosed a $400 million loss tied to private-credit-related loans connected to the collapse of UK mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions. It later paused a previously announced plan to invest $4 billion into its own private credit funds while maintaining that it remained committed to private credit investing. --- ## China lifts Southbound Bond Connect quota to RMB800 billion, broadens Hong Kong bond access **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/china-lifts-southbound-bond-connect-quota-to-rmb800-billion-broadens-hong-kong-bond-access-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T08:52:49.597Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Financial Regulation _Authorities in Hong Kong and Mainland China said the annual Southbound Bond Connect quota will rise to RMB800 billion from RMB500 billion, with plans for repo using southbound holdings, wider eligible products and Macao linkage. The package also adds collateral, settlement and offshore RMB liquidity measures, including a larger RMB Business Facility from July 10._ Hong Kong and Mainland Chinese authorities announced a package of bond-market and offshore renminbi measures on July 7, including an increase in the annual Southbound Bond Connect quota to RMB800 billion from RMB500 billion. The package includes plans to develop repurchase transactions using Southbound Bond Connect holdings as collateral, expand eligible products to instruments with Hong Kong dollar and renminbi bond underlyings, connect the program to the Macao bond market through infrastructure links, and tighten management of designated market makers from this year. Authorities also said Hong Kong and Mainland financial market infrastructure institutions will work on a fixed-income and currency electronic trading platform in Hong Kong. For Northbound Bond Connect, settlement hours will be extended through a direct linkage between Hong Kong’s Central Moneymarkets Unit and China Central Depository and Clearing to improve settlement efficiency. Onshore Chinese government bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance and Mainland policy bank bonds held through Northbound Bond Connect will be supported as eligible margin collateral at HKFE Clearing and the SEHK Options Clearing House. Swap Connect will add the interbank 7-Day Fixing Depository-Institutions Repo Rate, FDR007, as a reference rate, and authorities set August 3, 2026 as the target launch date for HKEX five-year China Government Bond futures. Separately, the renminbi Business Facility in Hong Kong will be enlarged to RMB500 billion from RMB200 billion from July 10, with new 9-month, 2-year and 3-year tenors. Authorities also disclosed work on a 7-day offshore renminbi liquidity tender mechanism, offshore renminbi short-term debt issuance, an Indonesian rupiah-offshore renminbi transaction framework, and banking guidance on renminbi usage. Southbound Bond Connect was launched in 2021 as a channel for Mainland institutional investors to access the Hong Kong bond market through cross-border market infrastructure links. --- ## BoE proposes lower leverage minimum and buffer changes for UK banks **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/boe-proposes-lower-leverage-minimum-and-buffer-changes-for-uk-banks-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T08:47:58.235Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Finance & Banking **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Financial Regulation _In records and papers published on 7 July 2026, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee proposed removing the countercyclical leverage buffer, cutting the Tier 1 leverage minimum to 3% from 3.25%, setting systemic leverage buffers at 50% of risk-weighted equivalents, and adding a releasable 25-basis-point general buffer._ The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee said on 7 July 2026 that it is proposing changes to the UK bank leverage framework as part of a broader bank capital review. The proposals include removing the countercyclical leverage buffer, lowering the Tier 1 leverage minimum to 3% from 3.25%, setting systemic leverage buffers at 50% of their risk-weighted equivalents, and adding a general 25 basis point leverage ratio buffer that could be released to zero in stress. The FPC said the current UK framework consists of a 3.25% minimum based on a leverage exposure measure that excludes central bank reserves, plus additional systemic leverage buffers for global systemically important banks and certain other systemically important institutions, and a countercyclical leverage buffer. It said the two buffers are currently set at 35% of their risk-weighted counterparts. The committee said the leverage ratio has become more binding over time and was the binding Tier 1 constraint, or close to it, for three of seven major UK banks. It said the proposed package is intended to make the framework simpler, more proportionate and more usable in stress, while keeping large UK banks within the international range. The FPC said that, when combined with planned adjustments to Bank Capital Stress Test leverage hurdle rates, the changes would reduce the leverage ratio that large UK banks need to maintain by about 20 basis points in aggregate, with differences by bank. In a separate statement, the Prudential Regulation Authority said it would work to improve the usability and releasability of capital buffers, including clarifying that it could release O-SII buffers in systemic stress using existing powers. Governor Andrew Bailey also said it would not be appropriate to exclude gilts from leverage ratio calculations. --- ## New Zealand central bank lifts OCR to 2.50%, opening first tightening move in three years **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/new-zealand-central-bank-lifts-ocr-to-2-50-opening-first-tightening-move-in-three-years-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T08:45:47.524Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Inflation _The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unanimously increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50%, citing persistent non-tradables inflation and recent easing in financial conditions. It said further tightening appears likely, but timing will depend on incoming data, pricing behaviour and spare capacity._ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on July 8 raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% from 2.25%, its first increase in three years. It said the move was consistent with returning inflation to the 2% midpoint of its target while reducing the degree of monetary stimulus. The Monetary Policy Committee said the decision was unanimous and that further increases appear likely, although the timing is highly uncertain and will depend on incoming data, price-setting behaviour, and the absorption of spare capacity. The bank said inflation had been above the target band before the recent Middle East shock and that non-tradables inflation had remained persistent despite spare capacity. It said annual headline inflation was expected to have peaked at 3.9% in the June 2026 quarter and to slow to 3.3% in the September quarter, while still returning to target only by mid-2027. The committee also said domestic financial conditions had eased recently through lower wholesale rates and a weaker trade-weighted New Zealand dollar, citing that easing as a factor in the rate increase. The bank noted March quarter GDP growth of 0.8%, slower activity in the June quarter based on high-frequency indicators, house prices down 0.4% from a year earlier in May, subdued housing activity, and contracting residential investment, while projecting growth to resume in the September quarter. Separately, the committee approved operational changes to fully divest its remaining LSAP holdings by June 30, 2027. --- ## Oil gains about 3% in early Asia after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and tighter limits on Iranian crude **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/oil-gains-about-3-in-early-asia-after-renewed-u-s-iran-strikes-and-tighter-limits-on-iranian-crude-2026-07-08 **Published:** 2026-07-08T08:43:11.526Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Geopolitical Conflict, WTI_OIL _Brent and WTI each rose about 3% intraday as markets assessed renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran and Washington's move to restore restrictions on Iranian crude sales. Traders also tracked risks to Strait of Hormuz shipping, expected U.S. inventory draws and short-covering from large bearish positions._ Oil prices rose in early Asian trading, with Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate each up about 3% intraday, as markets assessed renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran and Washington's move to restore tighter restrictions on Iranian crude sales. The reported policy step included revoking a general license that had authorized Iranian crude sales, adding uncertainty around the outlook for Iranian exports. Market focus also remained on shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 million barrels per day of oil and roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, while alternative pipeline routes remain limited relative to normal flows. Concerns centered on commercial vessel transit, tanker routing and safety, and the possibility of renewed supply disruption in the region. The report also said earlier expectations for additional Middle East supply and a looser market had encouraged large speculative short positions, leaving prices sensitive to short-covering when conflict-related headlines returned. Inventory data remained part of the near-term balance picture, with traders watching for another U.S. crude stock draw after industry data and a Reuters poll pointed to an expected decline of about 2.4 million barrels for the week ended July 3. Broader market background has included stock draws and emergency reserve releases since the conflict began. --- ## Thailand June CPI Slows to 2.42%, Below Forecast and Inside BOT Target Range **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/thailand-june-cpi-slows-to-2-42-below-forecast-and-inside-bot-target-range-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:29:48.971Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Economy **Keywords:** CPI, Central Bank Policy, Inflation _Thailand’s headline CPI rose 2.42% year on year in June, slowing from 2.79% in May and coming in below market expectations. Core inflation was 1.23%, while the reading stayed within the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target band. The Commerce Ministry kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 1.5%-2.5%._ Thailand’s consumer price index rose 2.42% from a year earlier in June 2026, slowing from 2.79% in May and coming in below market expectations of around 2.7% to 2.87%, according to the Commerce Ministry and Reuters. The headline CPI index stood at 102.85 in June, while core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 1.23% year on year with an index level of 102.68. For the first half of 2026, headline inflation averaged 1.08% and core inflation averaged 0.79%. The June headline reading remained within the Bank of Thailand’s 1% to 3% target range. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office said higher retail fuel prices compared with a year earlier and broader increases in prepared-food prices were the main contributors to June inflation. Compared with May, prices of 194 items increased, 151 declined and 119 were unchanged out of 464 items surveyed. The Commerce Ministry kept its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.5% to 2.5%. The June data followed the Bank of Thailand’s June 24 decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.00% in a unanimous 7-0 vote. --- ## June 8: German April Factory Orders Fall 3.8% After March Increase, Led by Euro-Area Weakness **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/june-8-german-april-factory-orders-fall-3-8-after-march-increase-led-by-euro-area-weakness-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:26:35.863Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Economy **Keywords:** Business Investment, DE_GDP, Growth Outlook _Destatis said German manufacturing orders fell 3.8% in April from March after a 5.0% rise in March. Foreign orders dropped 4.2%, led by an 11.1% decline from the euro area, while domestic orders fell 2.9%. Orders excluding large contracts also slipped 3.8%, and real manufacturing turnover edged up 0.1%._ German manufacturing new orders fell 3.8% in April from March in real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms, Destatis said on June 8, after a 5.0% increase in March. Compared with April 2025, orders were up 1.6% on a calendar-adjusted basis, while orders in February through April were down 3.1% from the previous three months. Excluding large-scale orders, April bookings also fell 3.8%, though the three-month comparison excluding large orders showed a 3.5% increase. The April monthly decline was led by motor vehicles and parts, down 5.3%, electrical equipment, down 16.3%, and machinery and equipment, down 7.4%. By main industrial grouping, capital goods orders fell 2.9%, intermediate goods orders dropped 4.4%, and consumer goods orders declined 6.7%. Foreign orders decreased 4.2%, with euro-area demand down 11.1% and orders from outside the euro area up 0.8%, while domestic orders fell 2.9%. Real manufacturing turnover rose 0.1% in April after a 0.7% increase in March. In earlier commentary on March data, German official institutions had noted that monthly orders can be distorted by large contracts and that recent fluctuations had occurred alongside procurement and supply concerns related to the Middle East conflict involving Iran. --- ## June 18: More ships resume Strait of Hormuz passages as US-Iran ceasefire remains in effect **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/june-18-more-ships-resume-strait-of-hormuz-passages-as-us-iran-ceasefire-remains-in-effect-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:23:21.921Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Geopolitics & Trade **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Geopolitical Conflict, WTI_OIL _Danish shipping group BIMCO said more vessels were resuming Strait of Hormuz passages after the US-Iran ceasefire, but warned that congestion, navigational incidents and electronic interference still affect transit decisions. It said operators should rely on voyage-specific risk assessments and official advisories, and that a return to pre-conflict traffic could take months._ BIMCO said on June 18 that more vessels were resuming passages through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remained in effect, but the operating environment was still volatile and lacked sufficient detail for operators to treat the route as fully normalized. The shipping group said the main immediate constraints were traffic congestion, the risk of navigational incidents in confined inshore traffic zones if multiple owners restart transits at the same time, and continued electronic interference, including GNSS disruption. BIMCO said owners should continue voyage-specific risk assessments, use the latest official reporting and keep seafarer safety as the primary consideration before committing to a transit window. Industry and official advisories have also said insurance availability remains a factor in transit decisions and that ships should maintain close contact with reporting centers and follow bridge and security procedures. BIMCO said a return to pre-conflict service levels was possible only over a period of months if risk conditions stabilize, rather than immediately after ceasefire announcements. --- ## Baillie Gifford begins September 2025 workforce review, seeking voluntary departures as it reorganizes roles **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/baillie-gifford-begins-september-2025-workforce-review-seeking-voluntary-departures-as-it-reorganizes-roles-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:20:58.661Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Finance & Banking **Keywords:** Labor Market _In September 2025, Baillie Gifford said it was consulting on changes across about 1,600 employees, with up to 50 positions potentially affected and some departures expected before year-end. The firm said it was reallocating roles to reflect changes in client distribution, while using internal mobility to redeploy staff where possible._ Baillie Gifford has begun a consultation on workforce changes across about 1,600 international employees and is seeking voluntary departures as it reallocates roles. According to a September 2025 report, up to 50 positions could be affected, and some staff are expected to leave before year-end. The partner-owned asset manager said the review was linked to changes in client distribution. Defined benefit pension schemes now represent a smaller part of the market, while intermediary and individual-saver channels account for a larger share. Baillie Gifford said it is using internal mobility to redeploy staff where possible. In the past year, 132 employees changed roles and 61 joined, including six graduates and postgraduates in the investment programme. The report said the firm managed about £200 billion at the time. The review follows an earlier restructuring in 2024, when the firm reduced headcount by dozens, including some investment roles. That process followed a strategic review of fixed income that narrowed its focus to the UK market and led to the closure of four fixed-income funds with limited client demand. --- ## December 2024 institutional equity selling hit 2024 high as ETFs bought and retail stayed net sellers **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/december-2024-institutional-equity-selling-hit-2024-high-as-etfs-bought-and-retail-stayed-net-sellers-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:18:25.316Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Markets **Keywords:** S&P 500 _S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that institutional investors were net sellers of $50.20 billion in equities in December 2024, the largest monthly sale of the year. Index funds and ETFs were net buyers of $25.89 billion, while retail investors also sold a net $7.84 billion and hedge funds bought $20.44 billion._ **S&P Global Market Intelligence** reported in January 2025 that institutional investors were net sellers of $50.20 billion of equities in December 2024, the largest monthly net sale of the year and about 50% more than in November. For full-year 2024, institutional investors sold a net $283.50 billion of equities, with average net monthly selling of about $29.58 billion over the prior 12 months. By contrast, index funds and ETFs were net buyers of $25.89 billion in December, down from $43.21 billion in November but close to their 12-month average of $24.44 billion. Retail investors remained net sellers in December, with net sales of $7.84 billion, compared with $11.89 billion in November and a 2024 monthly average net sale of $14.58 billion. Hedge funds were net buyers of $20.44 billion in December after net selling of $30.83 billion in November, leaving their average positioning through 2024 roughly flat. The December figures extended a broader 2024 pattern in which discretionary institutional cash-equity investors were net sellers while passive investment vehicles continued to absorb net inflows. --- ## ICICI Bank Weighs Return to Benchmark US Dollar Bond Market for First Such Sale Since 2017 **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/icici-bank-weighs-return-to-benchmark-us-dollar-bond-market-for-first-such-sale-since-2017-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:14:36.250Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Deals & Capital Markets **Keywords:** Financial Regulation, USDINR _ICICI Bank's last benchmark US dollar senior bond was a $500 million 3.8% note due 2027 issued in December 2017 through its Dubai branch. The bank's disclosures show foreign-currency senior unsecured ratings of Baa3 from Moody's and BBB from S&P, while April 2026 investor materials detailed capital, deposits and asset-quality metrics._ ICICI Bank is weighing a benchmark US dollar bond sale that would mark its first such transaction since 2017. The bank’s international bond investor disclosures show a series of benchmark-size senior US dollar notes sold between 2012 and 2017. These included a $700 million 4.00% bond due 2026, a $300 million 3.25% bond due 2022 with 2017 taps, and a $500 million 3.80% senior bond due 2027 issued in December 2017. SGX listing records identify the 2027 note as issued by ICICI Bank through its Dubai branch, with both Rule 144A and Regulation S lines. The bank’s credit rating disclosures list its foreign-currency senior unsecured medium-term notes at Baa3 from Moody’s and BBB from S&P. ICICI’s April 18, 2026 investor presentation outlined capital, deposit mix, cost of deposits, net interest margin, cost-to-income, provision levels, net non-performing asset ratio, and provision coverage. An earnings call the same day said treasury profit and loss reflected market movements and referred to recent Reserve Bank of India guidelines capping FX net open positions in the onshore market. On June 8, 2026, the RBI also introduced a US dollar-rupee swap facility for fresh FCNR(B) deposits with three- to five-year tenors for eligible banks. --- ## PBOC Says June Net Bond Operations Added CNY10 Billion, First-Half Total Reaches CNY300 Billion **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/pboc-says-june-net-bond-operations-added-cny10-billion-first-half-total-reaches-cny300-billion-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:12:13.886Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Fiscal & Monetary Policy _China’s central bank said it injected a net 10 billion yuan through open-market government bond purchases and sales in June, with first-half net injections via that channel reaching 300 billion yuan. The PBOC said such operations have been conducted routinely this year, with sizes adjusted to liquidity needs and bond-market conditions._ China’s central bank said it injected a net 10 billion yuan through open-market government bond purchases and sales in June, bringing net liquidity injections through that channel in the first half of 2026 to 300 billion yuan. The People’s Bank of China said in a Xinhua-reported release that government bond trading has been conducted on a routine basis since the start of the year, with operation sizes adjusted flexibly according to base-money supply needs and bond-market conditions. For June, the PBOC also reported a net 200 billion yuan injection through the medium-term lending facility, a net withdrawal of 137.2 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, net injections of 582.6 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos, and net injections of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos of other maturities. The central bank has previously said government bond operations are part of its liquidity-management toolkit. In January 2025, it said it would temporarily suspend open-market purchases of government bonds because of persistent excess demand in that market and that purchases would resume at an appropriate time depending on supply and demand conditions. --- ## Canada and Alberta Move Ahead With 1 Million bpd West Coast Oil Pipeline to Expand Non-U.S. Exports **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/canada-and-alberta-move-ahead-with-1-million-bpd-west-coast-oil-pipeline-to-expand-non-u-s-exports-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:07:16.498Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** Business Investment, Economic Policy, WTI_OIL _Ottawa said it will refer Alberta’s proposed heavy-crude pipeline to the Major Projects Office for possible national-interest fast-tracking. The project would transport 1 million barrels per day from Alberta to British Columbia’s coast, with Trans Mountain leading development, Pembina investing, and consultations on Indigenous equity participation starting immediately._ Canada and Alberta said on July 2 they are advancing a proposed 1 million barrel-per-day heavy-crude pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s west coast, and Ottawa will refer the project to the Major Projects Office for possible national-interest listing under the Building Canada Act. Government documents describe the line as running largely along the existing Trans Mountain corridor, starting at a receipt terminal in the Bruderheim area and extending to a marine terminal in southern British Columbia for vessel loading. Officials said the route would not require changes to the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act. Trans Mountain will lead development, construction and operations, while Pembina will hold a 10% economic interest during construction with an option to increase that by up to another 10% at commercial operation. The remaining ownership is to be shared equally by Trans Mountain Corporation and the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, with consultations on Indigenous equity participation starting immediately. The Major Projects Office process will begin consultations with Indigenous groups, provinces and territories and could lead to a streamlined federal review if the project is listed. British Columbia said it will participate in routing and permitting discussions within its jurisdiction under a cooperative agreement that keeps the federal tanker ban in place and links the project to consultation obligations with First Nations and support for route-area Indigenous equity participation. Alberta said potential construction could begin as early as Sept. 1, 2027, subject to consultation, approvals and permitting. The federal and Alberta governments also linked the pipeline to an agreement with the Oil Sands Alliance to advance the Pathways carbon capture and storage project, which they said targets 16 million tonnes a year of emissions reductions. Canada’s crude export system remains concentrated on the U.S.; the Canada Energy Regulator said about 97% of crude exports went to the U.S. in 2023, while Statistics Canada said the non-U.S. share rose to 10.9% in 2025 after the first full year of expanded Trans Mountain operations. --- ## IMF’s June 9 Nigeria review warns proposed $5 billion swap financing could increase debt and liquidity risks **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/imfs-june-9-nigeria-review-warns-proposed-5-billion-swap-financing-could-increase-debt-and-liquidity-risks-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:02:57.552Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Finance & Banking **Keywords:** Economic Policy, Financial Regulation, Fiscal & Monetary Policy _In its 2026 Article IV report published June 9, the IMF said Nigeria’s proposed $5 billion total return swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank uses 133% collateral in domestic government securities and creates margin-call exposure tied to the naira and interest rates. IMF staff treated the full collateral amount as debt and cited Eurobonds or concessional borrowing as alternatives._ An IMF staff report for Nigeria’s 2026 Article IV consultation, published on June 9 after the Executive Board concluded the review on June 1, said the government’s proposed $5 billion total return swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank would add fiscal and liquidity risks because of both its structure and size. According to the report, the transaction carries an interest cost comparable to Nigeria’s Eurobond yield, requires collateral equal to 133% of the amount in domestic government securities, and includes fees. It also exposes the government to margin calls if the foreign-exchange value of the naira securities falls because of naira depreciation or higher domestic interest rates. The IMF said these obligations could affect monetary and exchange-rate policy choices, and it added the full value of the collateral to debt in its debt sustainability analysis until the swap matures. The report said that, together with a possible Eurobond issue later in the year, the borrowing could leave the budget overfinanced and allow the government to build deposits at the central bank. It added that off-budget spending and complex financing instruments can weaken fiscal reporting and raise rollover and liquidity risks. Banks hold government securities equal to 22% of total assets, pension assets equal to 6.4% of GDP are concentrated in government paper, and federal interest payments are projected to absorb more than half of revenue across 2025 to 2027. The IMF said contingent liabilities include possible additional collateral calls under the swap, arrears to NNPCL, electricity companies and pensioners once recognized, and any pre-export financing that reduces future revenue. It said Eurobonds or concessional borrowing would be more transparent alternatives for deficit financing. Nigeria’s Debt Management Office reported total public debt of $103.94 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, with external debt accounting for 46.63% of the total. --- ## June 23, 2026: Hormuz shipping edges higher while the US-Iran truce remains in place **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/june-23-2026-hormuz-shipping-edges-higher-while-the-us-iran-truce-remains-in-place-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T08:00:47.991Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Energy & Commodities **Keywords:** BRENT_OIL, Geopolitical Conflict, Natural Gas _Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased from fewer than 10 daily transits in early March to about 35 on June 22, with some oil tankers and seven ballast LNG carriers entering the Gulf. Insurance costs remain above prewar levels, and shipping groups say routing, safety and tracking disruptions continue to limit a broader recovery._ Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased to about 35 daily transits on June 22, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data cited by insurers, after falling to fewer than 10 a day in early March from about 135 a day in February before the disruption. Reuters reported that two stranded very large crude carriers exited the strait on June 23, including Dubai Energy with 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi and Saudi crude and Universal Glory with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, while two Iranian-linked Suezmax tankers were heading into the waterway. On LNG, seven ballast QatarEnergy-controlled carriers entered the Gulf between June 11 and June 22, the first such inbound voyages since Feb. 28. Some ships reappeared on tracking systems after periods with signals off, and four were reported to have used the Iranian coastal route. Insurers said war-risk cover for Hormuz voyages remains available, but additional premiums were still around 3% to 4% of hull value after the truce, down from roughly 4.5% to 6% earlier and above the pre-conflict level near 0.25%. Shipping and insurance groups said a broader recovery still depends on navigational safety arrangements, mine-related checks, port services, emergency support and consistent routing procedures, while EIA, UKMTO and industry guidance noted that AIS and GNSS disruptions mean observed transit counts may not capture all vessel movements. --- ## May 2026 euro-zone unemployment holds at 6.2%; EU rate remains 5.9% **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/may-2026-euro-zone-unemployment-holds-at-6-2-eu-rate-remains-5-9-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T07:57:17.501Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Economy **Keywords:** EA21_UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE, EU27_UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE, Labor Market _Eurostat reported 10.986 million unemployed people in the euro area in May, down 55,000 from April, while the EU total fell 40,000 to 13.163 million. The euro area rate was down from 6.3% a year earlier. Youth unemployment was 14.7% in the euro area and 15.2% in the EU._ Eurostat said on 2 July that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the euro area was 6.2% in May 2026, unchanged from April and down from 6.3% a year earlier. The EU rate was 5.9%, unchanged on the month and down from 6.0% in May 2025. The estimates imply 10.986 million unemployed people in the euro area and 13.163 million in the EU, with monthly declines of 55,000 and 40,000 respectively, and annual declines of 158,000 and 82,000. Eurostat also said April 2026 was revised to 6.2% for the euro area from 6.3% and to 5.9% for the EU from 6.0%. Youth unemployment in May stood at 14.7% in the euro area, stable from April, and 15.2% in the EU, up from 15.1%. There were 2.313 million unemployed people under 25 in the euro area and 2.918 million in the EU. In the euro area, the unemployment rate for women was 6.4% in May, down from 6.5% in April, and for men it was 6.0%, down from 6.1%; in the EU, the rates were 6.2% for women and 5.7% for men. Among member states listed in the release, May rates included Germany at 3.8%, France at 8.2%, Italy at 5.0%, Spain at 10.3%, Greece at 8.1%, the Netherlands at 3.9%, Portugal at 5.5%, Finland at 10.6% and Sweden at 8.7%. --- ## Lime closes above offer price in Nasdaq debut after $167 million IPO **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/lime-closes-above-offer-price-in-nasdaq-debut-after-167-million-ipo-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T07:52:35.846Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Deals & Capital Markets **Keywords:** Business Investment _Lime, the scooter and e-bike operator backed by Uber, traded as high as $27 and closed around $26 in its July 1 Nasdaq debut after pricing its IPO at $25 a share. The offering valued the company at about $1.7 billion, and Lime said proceeds would help repay its $115 million term loan._ Lime, the scooter and e-bike operator backed by Uber, closed at about $26 in its July 1 Nasdaq debut after trading as high as $27 and pricing its initial public offering at $25 a share under the ticker LIME. The debut valued the company at about $1.7 billion. Lime sold 6,679,791 shares in the offering, raising about $167 million in gross proceeds, while existing stockholders sold 276,731 shares. The underwriters also received an option to buy up to 1,043,478 additional shares. In an amended prospectus filed on June 22, Lime said it expected net proceeds of about $141.6 million at the $25 midpoint assumption, or about $165.8 million if the overallotment option is fully exercised. The company said it would use the proceeds to repay its $115.0 million senior secured term loan, cover certain tax withholding tied to RSU settlements, and fund general corporate purposes, and that it would receive no proceeds from shares sold by existing holders. Uber indicated interest in buying up to $20 million of stock in the IPO and held a 24.4% stake before the offering. Lime reported 2025 revenue of $886.7 million and a net loss of $59.3 million. --- ## China Resources New Energy Nearly Triples in Shenzhen Debut After Asia’s Largest IPO of 2026 **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/china-resources-new-energy-nearly-triples-in-shenzhen-debut-after-asias-largest-ipo-of-2026-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T07:49:58.162Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Deals & Capital Markets **Keywords:** Business Investment, CSI 300 _China Resources New Energy, a China Resources Power unit that develops and operates wind and solar projects, started trading in Shenzhen on July 2 after selling 2.11 billion shares at RMB10.11. The IPO could raise RMB24.5 billion with the greenshoe, and the stock reached RMB30.16 intraday after retail demand remained 683.4 times subscribed following a clawback._ China Resources New Energy began trading on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on July 2 after completing what Reuters, citing LSEG data, described as Asia’s largest listing so far in 2026 and Shenzhen’s largest IPO on record. The company, a unit of Hong Kong-listed China Resources Power that develops and operates wind farms and photovoltaic power plants in China, sold 2.107 billion new shares at RMB10.11 each before any overallotment option. The deal could raise as much as RMB24.5 billion if the greenshoe is fully exercised. The stock opened at RMB21.60, rose to RMB28.08 within minutes and was temporarily halted, reached an intraday high of RMB30.16, and closed at RMB23.95, up 136.89% from the offer price, giving it a market value of about RMB311.5 billion. IPO filings showed retail investors submitted valid bids for about 636 billion shares, equivalent to roughly RMB6.4 trillion at the offer price. After a clawback increased the public allocation, the final retail tranche rose to 930.7 million shares and remained 683.4 times subscribed. Strategic investors were allocated 1.054 billion shares, equal to 50% of the initial issuance, with a 12-month lockup, while 1.062 billion A-shares were available for trading on the first day. The company said IPO proceeds would be used for wind and solar projects, adding a funding channel for renewable expansion at the parent group. --- ## April 1, 2026: BoE presses on with gilt repo reforms to address hedge fund leverage, eyes early 2027 update **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/april-1-2026-boe-presses-on-with-gilt-repo-reforms-to-address-hedge-fund-leverage-eyes-early-2027-update-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T07:47:38.612Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Central Banks & Policy **Keywords:** Central Bank Policy, Economic Policy, Financial Regulation, GB_10Y _After publishing feedback on its 2025 discussion paper, the Bank said it will continue work through 2026 on broader central clearing and minimum haircuts in non-centrally cleared gilt repo, with an update due in early 2027. Bank data showed hedge fund net gilt repo borrowing reached £61 billion in March 2025 and was concentrated among a few funds._ The Bank of England said in a feedback statement published on April 1, 2026 that it will continue work through 2026 on reforms to the gilt repo market and publish a comprehensive update, including potential policy proposals, in early 2027 with notice and implementation timelines. The work follows its September 2025 discussion paper on enhancing the resilience of the gilt repo market, which examined broader central clearing and minimum haircuts or margins on non-centrally cleared repo. The Bank said the market is important for secured short-term funding against UK government bonds and for gilt market liquidity, government financing and monetary policy transmission. It cited stress episodes in March 2020 and September 2022 as reference points for its review. Bank data showed hedge fund net gilt repo borrowing rose from £4 billion at the start of 2024 to £61 billion in March 2025, placing it in the top percentile of observations since 2017, with borrowing concentrated in a small number of funds. The Bank has also said zero or near-zero haircuts in dealer-to-client non-centrally cleared gilt repo can support leverage build-up at low cost. In the feedback statement, respondents said central clearing could improve netting, counterparty risk management and transparency, but many also cited access barriers, operational constraints, costs and margin-related liquidity pressures. On minimum haircuts, most respondents opposed static floors, while the Bank said it would continue to assess system-wide effects, market-structure changes and the scope for more prudent margining in uncleared repo. --- ## KNDS pauses listing plans after investor pricing falls short of shareholders’ €12.5 billion threshold **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/knds-pauses-listing-plans-after-investor-pricing-falls-short-of-shareholders-12-5-billion-threshold-2026-07-06 **Published:** 2026-07-06T07:42:59.764Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Deals & Capital Markets **Keywords:** Business Investment, Geopolitical Conflict _KNDS said on July 1 it is suspending its planned IPO, citing volatility in European defense stocks and saying preparations were substantially complete. Reuters-based reporting said some investors valued the company below €12 billion, while a key shareholder was unwilling to proceed at less than about €12.5 billion._ KNDS said on July 1 that it had paused its planned initial public offering and would resume the process when capital-markets conditions are more supportive, citing current volatility in European defense stocks. The company said substantially all preparation phases for the listing had been completed and that investor meetings confirmed support for its business fundamentals and long-term strategy. Reuters-based reporting said preliminary investor discussions indicated some valuations below €12 billion, while a key German family shareholder was not willing to proceed at less than about €12.5 billion, leaving a gap that prevented the deal from moving ahead. KNDS had outlined a transaction structured as a secondary sale of up to about 20% to institutional investors through private placements, with no new shares to be issued. Germany’s parliamentary budget committee has also approved the government’s planned purchase of a 40% stake for up to €7.2 billion through KfW, alongside France’s holding through GIAT. KNDS previously reported 2025 revenue of €4.4 billion, EBIT of €661 million, free cash flow of €980 million and an order backlog of €33.1 billion. --- ## Getty to terminate $3.7 billion Shutterstock deal after CMA requires editorial-business sale **URL:** https://finnotes.com/market-news/getty-to-terminate-3-7-billion-shutterstock-deal-after-cma-requires-editorial-business-sale-2026-07-01 **Published:** 2026-07-01T13:42:00.459Z **Byline:** FinNotes Editorial **Section:** Deals & Capital Markets **Keywords:** Business Investment, Financial Regulation _Getty said its board unanimously decided not to pursue a CMA-supervised divestment of Shutterstock’s editorial business and plans to terminate the merger agreement after the extended July 6, 2026 deadline. The termination would trigger redemption of Getty Images, Inc.’s 10.500% senior secured notes due 2030, and Getty plans to seek advice on financing alternatives._ Getty Images said in a June 30 filing that its board unanimously decided not to pursue a U.K. Competition and Markets Authority-supervised sale of Shutterstock’s editorial business and intends to terminate the companies’ $3.7 billion merger agreement after the second extended end date of July 6, 2026, assuming no material change by July 7. Getty said the CMA’s U.K. clearance required the divestment of Shutterstock’s editorial operations, and the remedy package covered the global editorial business, including Shutterstock Editorial and the Rex Features, Splash News and Backgrid brands. In May, the CMA said the merger raised competition concerns for the supply of editorial content to U.K. media customers, but not for stock content supplied globally. Getty also said ending the merger would trigger a special mandatory redemption of Getty Images, Inc.’s 10.500% senior secured notes due 2030 under the applicable indenture. The company said its board intends to retain a financial adviser to review strategic financing alternatives. The transaction had previously received U.S. antitrust clearance without conditions in February 2026. Reuters reported that Shutterstock shares fell in after-hours trading following the announcement, while Getty shares rose modestly. ---