S&P Global Ratings on July 13 affirmed Indonesia’s long-term sovereign rating at BBB and its short-term rating at A-2, with a stable outlook, saying weaker fiscal and external metrics should be temporary.
The agency said the deterioration reflected high energy prices, higher interest rates, rupiah weakness, policy uncertainty and accumulated debt. It said the stable outlook was based on expectations of recovering government revenue this year, stronger export receipts alongside higher commodity prices, policy measures to raise resource-sector revenue and export earnings, and the government’s continued use of the 3% annual fiscal deficit ceiling as a policy anchor.
S&P said factors that could pressure the rating include a sustained rise in net general government debt by more than 3% of GDP per year, interest payments remaining above 15% of revenue, or structurally weaker exports that keep gross external financing needs above current-account receipts and usable reserves.
Bank Indonesia said the affirmation reflected confidence in Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability and could help support confidence in the government bond market after recent volatility in the currency and financial markets. The central bank said it would continue its monetary, macroprudential and payments policy mix and coordination with the government and financial stability authorities. Earlier in 2026, Moody’s and Fitch had affirmed Indonesia’s ratings while revising their outlooks to negative.