FinNotes

WTI crude settled at $95.96 a barrel on June 1, 2026, after a sharp one-day rise that came as Reuters reported that Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran had halted indirect negotiations with the United States and that plans were being discussed for Iranian forces and their allies to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and potentially disrupt other key shipping routes.

In the week that followed, OPEC+ said on June 7 that it was reaffirming the overall crude production level previously agreed for OPEC and non-OPEC participants through December 31, 2026. On the same day, the seven countries carrying additional voluntary adjustments said they would implement a production adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day, framing the move as part of their effort to support oil-market stability.

On June 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook that it expected a drop in global oil demand in 2026 to limit price increases tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The agency also said U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports were expected to average 4.2 million barrels per day in 2026, up 1.4 million barrels per day from 2025.

Reuters reported on June 9 that the EIA now expected OECD oil inventories to fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, which would be the lowest level since at least 2003. That report also said the agency was working on an assumption that marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027 and that roughly 11 million barrels per day of lost Middle Eastern output was being covered through inventory draws.

The dated material available after June 1 therefore shows that the price jump occurred alongside an acute shipping-risk headline, and that the immediate backdrop over the following week included OPEC+ supply management and a U.S. government outlook pointing to both weaker demand and unusually tight global inventories.