Brazil’s official forecasters and NOAA have reported a high probability that El Niño will develop in the second half of 2026, a pattern that Brazilian agencies associate with a higher likelihood of above-average rainfall in the South.
CEMADEN said in a technical note signed on March 31 and updated on April 6 that the probability of a new El Niño episode in the second half of 2026 was above 80%, possibly starting around August-October, with intensity still uncertain and no current indication of a very strong event. NOAA’s March 12 ENSO diagnostic said La Niña was expected to shift to neutral conditions in the following month, with El Niño likely to emerge in June-August 2026 and persist through at least the end of the year. NOAA also said strength probabilities were rising for strong and very strong categories later in 2026, while noting that event strength alone does not determine local impact.
For Brazil, INPE, INMET, FUNCEME and CENSIPAM also said El Niño is generally associated with increased rainfall probability in the South. That matters for Rio Grande do Sul, which accounts for about 70% of Brazilian rice output and is still absorbing losses from the May 2024 floods.
A state report using IRGA data recorded 89,931 hectares of affected rice area, 160,664 metric tons of losses in affected fields, 1,581 affected producers and 43,106 tons of rice impacted in damaged silos. IRGA’s cost survey for the 2024/25 irrigated crop put total production cost at 16,147.52 reais per hectare, or 95.04 reais per 50-kilogram bag, compared with an indicated paddy price of 74.84 reais per bag in May 2025.