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Brent Crude Falls to $78.31, a Three-Month Low, Amid U.S.-Iran Interim Deal and Rising Strait of Hormuz Flows
Brent oil posted an unusually sharp one-day drop of 4.8% to $84.36 on June 15, 2026, falling from $88.64 just three days earlier.
BRENT OIL vs BRENT OIL Change
Fixed windowBrent crude's 4.8% drop to $84.36 on June 15, 2026 was followed by another sharp selloff on June 16, when Reuters reported Brent futures fell about 5% to roughly $78.92 a barrel, a three-month low, as traders focused on details of an interim U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On June 19, Reuters reported tanker traffic had begun moving through the strait after the interim deal was signed, with Brent near $78.31 in early trading.
The International Energy Agency said on June 17 that global oil demand is now expected to fall by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2026, a 700,000 bpd downgrade from its May view, while global supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd this year to 102.4 million bpd before rebounding by 8 million bpd in 2027. The agency said flows through the Strait of Hormuz had already risen in early June to around 12 million bpd from a May low of 9.6 million bpd, but added that mines and supply-chain disruptions could delay a full recovery. The same report said global observed oil stocks fell by 143 million barrels in May and have been drawing at an average pace of 3.8 million bpd since the start of the Gulf conflict.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data released on June 17 showed commercial crude inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week ended June 12 to 418.2 million barrels, while total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels. The report also showed crude refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million bpd and refineries operated at 96.7% of capacity. Separately, OPEC said on June 16 that seven OPEC+ countries would implement a production adjustment of 188,000 bpd in July 2026 and continue monthly reviews of market conditions.
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Trump Proposes 20% Strait of Hormuz Cargo Levy; Benchmark VLCC Transit Cost Implied Near $30 Million
Analyses published July 13 estimated the proposal at about $30 million for a 2 million-barrel VLCC cargo and roughly $17 million for a fully laden large gas carrier at current prices. No collection or enforcement mechanism has been detailed, while the IMO has said international straits have no legal basis for compulsory tolls.
Companies & EarningsBP Guides 2Q Net Debt to $22 Billion-$23 Billion, Flags Higher Oil Trading and Lower Output
BP said second-quarter net debt should decline to $22 billion-$23 billion from $25.31 billion at the end of the first quarter, while oil trading is expected to be slightly stronger and gas trading broadly unchanged. Upstream production is seen at 2.17 million-2.22 million boe/d, down from 2.34 million in 1Q.
Geopolitics & TradeJuly 14: U.S. says it struck Iranian coastal sites after UAE reports cruise-missile attack on two tankers in Hormuz
CENTCOM said its July 13 mission targeted Iranian air defense, radar, missile, drone and small-boat assets across several coastal locations and issued notice that a naval blockade regime resumes July 14. Regional media citing the UAE Ministry of Defence said two tankers in Omani waters were hit by two Iranian cruise missiles, with one fatality and multiple injuries.
Energy & CommoditiesOil reaches four-week high with Brent above $85 amid renewed U.S.-Iran action in the Strait of Hormuz
Brent traded around $85.20 a barrel and WTI near $80.05 in early Singapore hours on July 14, with Brent at its highest level in four weeks. Brent had risen 9.6% in the previous session. Ship counts through Hormuz fell to 11 on July 12 from 32 on July 10, and tanker attacks were reported.
Energy & CommoditiesJune 11: OPEC cuts 2026 world oil demand growth estimate to 970,000 bpd
On June 11, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million, implying total demand of 106.13 million bpd. It left economic growth assumptions unchanged, raised its 2027 demand growth outlook to 1.73 million bpd, and reported May OPEC+ output at 33.13 million bpd.
Energy & CommoditiesU.S. launches strikes on Iran, revokes oil-sales license after Hormuz vessel attacks
Reuters reported attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and said U.S. Central Command described subsequent U.S. strikes on Iran as responsive to the shipping incidents. Brent settled at $74.16 a barrel and WTI at $70.44, while OFAC limited previously authorized Iran oil trade to wind-down activity through July 17.
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