North Sea crude benchmarks weakened in mid-June as higher Strait of Hormuz throughput and expectations of a partial recovery in Gulf exports coincided with lower 2026 demand projections. The International Energy Agency said in its June 17 oil market report that North Sea Dated fell by more than $40 a barrel to around $82 a barrel from May through mid-June, while Reuters reported on June 19 that Dated Brent was at $77.27 a barrel and Forties was offered at a 35-cent premium to Dated Brent, the lowest since early May and down from record April levels.
The IEA said flows through the strait rose from a May low of 9.6 million barrels a day to around 12 million barrels a day in early June, and Reuters cited a U.S. statement that 12.5 million barrels moved through the waterway after the U.S.-Iran interim agreement. The agency said prices had already been retreating before the scheduled June 19 signing in Switzerland as Gulf exports increased at the start of June, emergency stock releases accelerated and demand weakened.
In the same report, the IEA forecast global oil demand to decline by 1.1 million barrels a day year on year in 2026, with the largest downgrade in the second quarter when deliveries fell by 5 million barrels a day from a year earlier, and said global observed inventories fell by 143 million barrels in May. Reuters also reported that the first week of Brent contracts-for-differences moved to a 25-cent discount to the August Brent forward from a record premium in April, indicating a narrower prompt physical premium.
The IEA said a full normalization of Gulf supply would take time because mine removal, transit arrangements, insurance conditions and shipowner caution were still affecting operations.